. . .It was crucial to me that the numbers in the allegory seem realistic. The most important numbers were: (1) the chance of devastation per year, which came out about right, as I see it; and (2) the amount of time per day that I think would begin to make a significant difference if devoted by a typical person to some sort of activity geared toward the right ends. In Happiton, that threshold turned out to be about fifteen minutes per day per person. Fifteen minutes a day is just about the amount of time that I think would begin to make a real difference in the real world . . .

. . .I happen to believe that the odds of a holocaust will be reduced (perhaps by a factor of 1.0000001-) by writing to my representatives and senators fairly regularly, by attending local freeze meetings, by contributing to various organizations, by giving lectures here and there on the topic, and by writing articles like this. How can I know that it will do any good? I can't, of course. . . 

. . .The fifteen minutes a day per person that I would like to see spent by real people in this country is limited to adults (or at least people of high-school age), and I don't even include most adults in this. I cannot realistically hope that everyone will be motivated to become politically active. Perhaps a highly active minority of five percent would be enough. It is amazing how visible and influential an articulate and vocal minority of that size can be! So, being realistic, I limit my desires to an average of fifteen minutes of activity per day for five percent of the adult American population. I sincerely believe that with about this much work, a kind of turning point would be reached. . . 

. . .One last thought: Although to me it seems that nuclear war is the gravest threat before us, I would grant that to other people it might appear otherwise. I don't care so much what kinds of efforts people invest their time in, as long as they do something. . .